2:33 pm - March 5, 2026
A new forecast by DNV predicts the Middle East and North Africa will add hundreds of gigawatts of solar capacity by 2040, transforming regional energy systems with larger projects, integrated storage, and industrial growth.
A significant new forecast paints a picture of a sweeping expansion of solar energy across the Middle East and North Africa, with ripple effects that could touch everything from energy systems and storage markets to regional industries. According to a report by DNV, the MENA region might add roughly 860 GW of new solar photovoltaic capacity by 2040. That’s a big transformation, one that would change the way electricity is generated and would influence infrastructure planning throughout the Gulf and neighboring countries.
In its “Rise of Renewables in the Gulf Region” study, DNV predicts that variable renewable generation will dramatically grow this decade, mainly driven by large-scale solar projects. The report points out a geographic and climatic advantage: “The region’s solar build-out benefits from a unique geographical advantage, peak solar supply coincides with peak electricity demand, both daily and seasonally,” it states. That alignment, DNV argues, limits the immediate need for costly long-duration storage solutions for solar output.
Back in 2024, the current solar capacity in the region was still modest compared to the forecasted scale. DNV recorded around 76 GW of installed solar, split roughly into 61 GW of utility-scale plants and about 15 GW of distributed systems, which supplied approximately 4% of regional electricity. The expectations are that capacity will roughly double by 2026 to around 154 GW and could reach about 340 GW by 2029. By that time, solar might contribute close to 20% of the region’s electricity.
Utility-scale projects are getting bigger and more ambitious. DNV anticipates a notable shift toward gigawatt-scale plants, by the end of this decade, about 80% of completed projects are expected to be over 1 GW, a significant jump from roughly 20% earlier in the 2020s. Also, co-located battery storage is ramping up quickly; developers are keen to ensure supply around the clock and improve grid flexibility. DNV predicts that by 2044, half of utility-scale solar projects will be paired with storage, compared with only about 16% today.
Energy storage itself is set for rapid growth. Currently, the region has roughly 36 GWh of storage capacity, but that’s just a tiny slice of global totals. DNV forecasts about a tenfold increase by 2030, with storage approaching nearly 9,500 GWh by 2060. Batteries are expected to displace many thermal plants as providers of short-term flexibility, and projects with co-located storage, overtaking pumped hydro last year, are projected to make up most new deployments.
These technological shifts are driven by demand factors quite specific to the Gulf. DNV highlights buildings as a key early driver of new solar demand, especially because of space cooling and desalination needs. Looking beyond 2040, additional loads like electric vehicles, expanding data centers supporting AI, and green hydrogen production will only boost the need for low-carbon electricity. The report envisions a longer-term energy transition: by 2060, non-fossil fuel generation could make up 92% of electricity, up from about 14% in 2024. But DNV also emphasizes that the region has yet to hit the “additionality” milestone, the point where new non-fossil generation surpasses the growth in electricity demand. They foresee that happening only after 2040, meaning the real transition begins then, at least according to their forecast. It’s pretty interesting, right?
Grid capacity and interconnection will play an essential role in managing this growth. DNV notes that the region’s mostly modern transmission and distribution networks have expanded quickly, around 24% in the past ten years. They expect this to double again over the next decade, with a further 52% increase projected by 2034. That expansion partly explains why near-term grid constraints seem less severe in MENA compared to some mature markets. Nonetheless, the consultancy warns that after 2035, if upgrades don’t keep pace with renewables, bottlenecks could start cropping up, potentially threatening the flow of power.
On the industrial side, regional dynamics are also shaping the outlook. Analysis by Wood Mackenzie suggests MENA is building a substantial solar manufacturing base, with module production capacity expected to reach approximately 44 GW by 2029. That, along with favorable tariffs in some countries, could position the region as a competitive manufacturing hub with an eye toward export markets. Data from Dii Desert Energy and other industry trackers point to rapid recent additions: in 2025, cumulative solar PV capacity surpassed roughly 34-35 GW, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the way in operational assets.
Not all growth will be evenly distributed, however. Distributed solar remains a smaller piece of the pie, around 19% of total solar capacity in 2024, vs. a global average close to 30%. DNV expects this gap to narrow by around 2035 as policy, financing, and business models evolve to support small-scale systems.
The scale implied by these projections has important implications for supply chains and project timelines. DNV warns that the region still relies heavily on imported components, which could lead to delays in delivery especially as global markets tighten. Achieving the forecasted growth will require coordinated policies, better access to financing, grid reinforcements, and faster development of local manufacturing. Some industry stakeholders are already beginning to see signs of supply chain localization, though the pace and extent of this shift vary quite a bit between countries.
For climate tech actors in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and across the UAE, the DNV report offers both opportunities and challenges. The country’s current solar leadership, increasing project sizes, and planned storage integrations fit well with the scenarios laid out. But it also highlights some key tasks: boosting manufacturing capacity, reinforcing transmission lines, and better aligning grid planning with the rapid electrification happening in cooling, desalination, and green industries.
If these trends materialize as forecasted, DNV’s pathway could truly reshape the energy landscape of MENA and alter the business models for utilities, developers, and tech suppliers. The coming decade will be critical in turning the region’s abundant solar resources into reliable, low-cost electricity, crucial for both industrial competitiveness and sustainable development.
- https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/02/18/mena-region-to-add-860-gw-of-solar-by-2040-says-dnv/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/02/18/mena-region-to-add-860-gw-of-solar-by-2040-says-dnv/ – A report from DNV forecasts that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will add 860 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity by 2040. The report highlights that variable renewable electricity generation will grow 14-fold by 2040, with solar being the most cost-effective and rapid power source to deploy. The region’s solar expansion is aided by a unique geographical advantage where peak solar supply aligns with peak electricity demand, both daily and seasonally, due to significant space cooling requirements. In 2024, MENA had 76 GW of solar capacity, comprising 61 GW of utility-scale and 15 GW of distributed solar, supplying 4% of the region’s electricity. DNV projects that solar capacity will double to 154 GW by the end of 2026 and double again to 343 GW by 2029, at which point solar will supply 19% of the region’s electricity. The report also notes that utility-scale projects are becoming larger, with 80% of completed projects expected to be over 1 GW by the end of the decade, up from 20% at the beginning of the decade. Additionally, half of utility-scale solar in the region is expected to be tied to storage by 2044, compared to 16% in 2024. The MENA region currently has 36 GWh of storage capacity, equivalent to 1.4% of global capacity. DNV anticipates a tenfold growth in storage capacity by 2030, a 100-fold increase by 2045, and a total of 9.5 TWh by 2060, representing 12% of global capacity. Co-located storage projects are expected to expand to 70% of total storage capacity this year. Distributed solar accounts for a smaller market segment in MENA, with 19% of solar power in the region being distributed in 2024, compared to a global average of 30%. DNV projects that the region will reach the global proportion by 2035. The report also forecasts that new demand for solar projects up to 2040 will primarily come from buildings, particularly for space cooling and desalination. Between 2040 and 2060, DNV anticipates an additional 2.2 TW of solar and wind installations in the region, driven by the adoption of electric vehicles, increased AI data centres, and green hydrogen production. By 2060, 92% of electricity generation in MENA is projected to be non-fossil, up from 14% in 2024. The report notes that MENA has yet to reach the point of additionality, where growth in non-fossil electricity generation outpaces growth in electricity demand, but forecasts this milestone will be passed after 2040, marking the true beginning of the transition. DNV also highlights that the region’s relatively new and robust grid infrastructure means renewable growth is unlikely to be hampered by grid constraints in the short term. Transmission and distribution lines in MENA have grown 24% over the past decade and are expected to double over the next decade, with a further 52% growth by 2034. However, from 2035 onwards, the grid could become a bottleneck if expansions and upgrades do not match renewable capacity growth.
- https://www.dnv.com/news/2026/solar-and-wind-capacity-in-mena-set-for-tenfold-growth-by-2040-dnv-report-finds/ – DNV’s ‘Rise of Renewables in the Gulf Region’ report reveals that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is entering a period of rapid renewable power growth, led by large-scale solar projects and increasing use of energy storage. The report projects that variable renewable capacity in MENA will grow around tenfold by 2040 and continue rising through 2060. By 2060, electricity is expected to meet 35% of total energy demand in the region, with solar and wind together generating about 85% of electricity, comprising approximately 45% from solar and 40% from wind. The report notes a key shift around 2040, when annual growth in renewable electricity is projected to exceed annual growth in total electricity demand, leading to a steady increase in the share of renewable electricity in the overall mix. Solar power remains the leading renewable technology in the region, with installed solar capacity projected to increase from 76 GW in 2024 to 340 GW by 2029. The share of projects combined with battery storage is also expected to rise as developers seek round-the-clock supply and greater system flexibility. Wind power, though starting from a smaller base, is expected to triple in each decade from 2020 to 2060. Wind generation patterns complement solar output, with higher production at night and during seasonal wind periods, especially when combined with storage. The report finds that energy storage capacity in the region is projected to soar from about 36 GWh today to almost 9,500 GWh by 2060. Batteries will increasingly replace thermal power plants as the main source of short-term flexibility. Regional interconnections will also support system balancing and electricity trade as renewable shares increase.
- https://taiyangnews.info/markets/mena-region-cumulative-solar-pv-capacity-exceeds-34-gw – A report by Dii Desert Energy indicates that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s cumulative solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity exceeded 34.5 GW in 2025, with solar PV driving most of the expansion. The report highlights that MENA’s cumulative renewable energy capacity increased by 13.4 GW year-on-year to 43.7 GW in 2025, with solar PV making up 34.5 GW. Capacity additions accelerated sharply in 2025, with nearly 15 GW added in one year, compared to the five years it took for capacity to grow from about 14 GW in 2020 to 30 GW in 2024. Saudi Arabia leads the region with over 11.1 GW of operational solar PV capacity, followed by the UAE at around 6.6 GW, while Egypt tops North Africa with 2.52 GW, highlighting uneven progress across the region.
- https://now.solar/2026/01/15/dnv-mena-to-add-860gw-new-solar-pv-by-2040-pv-tech/ – DNV forecasts that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will add 860 GW of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity by 2040, representing a 12-fold increase from 2024 levels. The report, ‘Rise of Renewables in the Gulf Region,’ highlights that despite the growth in solar PV and wind generation, it will not displace gas-fired power until 2040, due to electricity demand growth exceeding the installed renewable energy capacity. DNV projects that electricity demand in the MENA region will triple by 2060. The report also notes that solar PV continues to be the leading renewable technology in the region, with installed capacity forecast to increase from 76 GW in 2024 to 340 GW in 2029. Additionally, energy storage is expected to grow rapidly, with current capacity of 36 GWh projected to increase tenfold by 2030, 100-fold by 2045, and reach 9.5 TWh by 2060, representing 12% of global capacity.
- https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/05/13/middle-east-north-africa-solar-manufacturing-capacity-to-reach-44-gw-by-2029-says-woodmac/ – Wood Mackenzie forecasts that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s solar manufacturing capacity will reach 44 GW by 2029, with installations in the region expected to exceed 140 GW by 2030. The analysis indicates that MENA is emerging as a tariff haven for solar manufacturing, benefiting from a comparatively low 10% basic tariff on solar modules imported to the US, giving producers in the region an advantage over others facing duties up to 651%. The report also notes that MENA’s vertically integrated, cost-competitive approach, underpinned by the latest technologies, sets it apart from fragmented strategies seen in other markets.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
10
Notes:
The article was published on February 18, 2026, and references a DNV report released around the same time. No evidence of recycled or outdated content was found.
Quotes check
Score:
10
Notes:
The article includes direct quotes from the DNV report. These quotes are consistent with the original source, and no discrepancies were found.
Source reliability
Score:
10
Notes:
The article is sourced from pv magazine International, a reputable publication in the renewable energy sector. The DNV report is a credible source, authored by a well-known risk management and quality assurance company.
Plausibility check
Score:
10
Notes:
The claims made in the article align with current trends in renewable energy growth in the MENA region. The projections are consistent with other industry analyses and reports.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
The article meets all verification standards, with no significant concerns identified. The information is current, accurately sourced, and consistent with other reputable analyses in the field.
